Canada’s population is poised for significant growth, driven largely by immigration, with projections indicating a more than 50% increase over the next 50 years.
According to forecasts released by Statistics Canada, the population is expected to rise from 40.1 million in 2022 to 62.8 million by 2073. This projection, based on a “medium-growth” scenario, suggests an average annual growth rate of about 0.9%. The agency also provided low and high growth projections, estimating population sizes ranging from 47.1 million to 87.2 million, translating to annual growth rates between 0.3% and 1.6%. Over the past 30 years, the average annual growth rate has been approximately 1.1%.
In the primary scenario, natural population growth (births minus deaths) is anticipated to turn negative by 2036. Consequently, immigration will become the primary driver of population increases.
Impact of Temporary Residents
The recent population boom in Canada has been significantly supported by an influx of non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary workers. However, Statistics Canada anticipates a substantial outflow of these individuals through 2027. In response to challenges such as strained infrastructure, housing shortages, and rising rents, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau aims to reduce the number of temporary residents by about 20% over the next three years. Currently, Canada hosts approximately 2.8 million temporary residents, up by 830,000 from the previous year.
The net outflow of non-permanent residents is expected to temporarily reduce the annual population growth rate to 0.7% between 2024-2025 and 2026-2027, down from 3.2% last year, according to the medium-growth scenario. However, a slower but steady growth rate is projected to resume by 2028.
Analysis and Market Impact:
The anticipated population growth, driven primarily by immigration, presents both challenges and opportunities for Canada. The increase in population will likely demand substantial investments in infrastructure, housing, healthcare, and education. For investors, this opens up opportunities in the real estate market, particularly in the development of housing and rental properties. Additionally, sectors like construction, healthcare, and education could see significant growth as they expand to meet the needs of a larger population.
Businesses will need to adapt to a more diverse workforce and consumer base, potentially leading to new market opportunities and innovations. The influx of immigrants could also enhance Canada’s labor market, filling skill gaps and contributing to economic growth.
However, managing this growth will require strategic planning and investment to ensure that infrastructure and services can accommodate the increasing population. Policymakers will need to address housing affordability, transportation, and social services to maintain a high quality of life for all residents.
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